A group of experts has declared the obvious: The U.S. economy is in a recession, which actually began a year ago. The National Bureau of Economic Research, created in 1920, says declining employment, industrial production and personal income meet its definition of a recession: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

The confirmation reinforces evidence of tough times that stretches from Wall Street to Detroit automakers to holiday season shoppers. Recessions are nothing new -- this is America's fourth since 1980. But the 12-month-old current slump is already longer than the average for all recessions since World War II, according to the national research bureau.
As fearful investors, executives and consumers wait for a turnaround, their inaction could prolong the problem.

So the big question is what's ahead in 2009, when the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama will try to boost confidence and turn things around. Some experts fear we're in for a tough ride. "This downturn promises to be the worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s," said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist at a global forecasting firm in New York. "We've only just started. I can't see bottoming out until sometime in 2010."

U.S. Treasury secretary says: "While we are making progress, the journey ahead will continue to be a difficult one." -- Henry Paulson, presidential Cabinet member

Columnist writes: "If the National Bureau of Economic Research couldn't ascertain that we were in a recession until one year after it started, I'm wondering what they do all day." -- Stanley Bing, Fortune magazine columnist

Consumer says: "I'm more on a budget than ever before. I'm more picky. I think, 'Is it really worth it?' I'm spending less on everyone [this Christmas] but trying to make it seem like we're not spending less on everyone. It's a real challenge." -- Jenn Tawney, 28, Perry Hill, Md.