It doesn't take a lucky guess or crystal ball to say history will be made Nov. 4 on Election Day. Headlines will say Americans elected either the first African American president -- Barack Obama, a Democrat -- or the first female vice-president -- Sarah Palin, running with Republican candidate John McCain. Either way, the major turning point will be in textbooks for future students.

Next week also could bring a record-high turnout. Republicans and Democrats predict a historic level of participation -- perhaps 130 million people, including millions casting their first ballot. States report record registration numbers and long lines formed during advance voting in Florida last week.
In most years, the United States has one of the lowest voter turnouts among mature democracies. In some countries, such as in Australia and the Netherlands, voting is mandatory.

Another factor drawing attention is whether Obama's healthy lead in most opinion surveys will turn out to be overstated -- which has happened to some African American candidates for state or city offices. This may be caused by false poll replies about candidate preference from people who don't want to seem biased. That theory even has a name -- "the Bradley effect," named for former Mayor Tom Bradley of Los Angeles, who lost a 1982 race for governor although polls signaled a wide margin of victory. He is black.

Young voter says: "It means a lot. It's kind of very important, and a lot of what happens affects us. So [voting] means a good deal to us." -- Maddy Murtha, Towson University student in Baltimore

Pollster says: "We have no evidence that people lie to us." -- Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research, which conducts Election Day exit polls for TV networks

Turnout theory: "Maybe one of the major reasons why turnout is so high is because people are so unhappy. Voters turn out on the basis of bad news." -- Andrew Kohut, head of Pew Research Center in Washington, D.C.